By Sonia Montejano
Mar 6, 2023, 10:00 AM

On February 22, Mexican legislators passed a law overhauling the country’s election agency, curtailing the watchdog’s power the year before a presidential election.  The move sparked mass protests throughout the country demanding the law be overturned.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO as he is popularly known, is leading the charge against the National Institute of Elections (“INE”), a quest he began in 2006 after losing his first presidential bid by less than one percent of the vote.  Last year, following a failed constitutional amendment to reform the electoral system, AMLO and his Morena party renewed attacks on the INE for alleged fraud and misuse of funds, calling on Congress to weaken the agency to reduce government spending and improve efficiency.  These efforts crystallized the bill—dubbed “Plan B”—now headed to the President’s desk.¹Notably, Plan B took a different legislative route to enactment.  In December 2022, the lower house of Congress effectively blocked AMLO’s 2022 constitutional amendment after not receiving the necessary two-thirds to pass a constitutional reform.  Plan B, however, only required approval of a simple majority, which AMLO secured in the upper chamber of Congress.

The INE is the product of 1990s institutional reform that ushered in the competitive multi-party electoral landscape Mexico has enjoyed since 2000.  As the “highest electoral authority of the Mexican State,”²See Sobre INE, Instituto Nacional Electoral, https://www.ine.mx/sobre-el-ine (“El INE es la máxima autoridad electoral del Estado Mexicano. . .”) (last visited March 3, 2023). the INE oversees federal elections and coordinates with officials in Mexico’s 32 states to administer state and local contests.  The agency also issues national voter identifications and enforces campaign finance laws.³With a 61 percent favorability rating, the INE has displayed broad support among Mexicans..

As Plan B churned through Congress, INE and opposition groups sounded the alarm.  Pushing back on Morena’s cost-cutting rationale, the agency has warned that the law would result in nearly 6,000 layoffs, crippling poll worker recruitment and threatening the stability of the upcoming 2024 elections.  The law would also relax some campaign finance rules and give more liberty to acting public officials to endorse candidates, raising worries about fairness and integrity.  Yet, AMLO dismissed these concerns in a televised address:  “How would the election be at risk, if it’s the people who have given value to democracy, not [the INE]? They are who put the election at risk.”⁴See Natalia Cano, El Instituto Nacional Electoral de México Advierte que las Elecciones de 2024 Están en Riesgo, CNN Español (Jan. 26, 2023, 19:49 PM), https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/video/ine-lorenzo-cordova-ciro-murayama-natalia-cano-redaccion-mexico (“¿Como se va a poner en riesgo una elección si quien ha hecho valer la democracia en el país ha sido el pueblo, no ellos? Los que ponen en riesgo la elección son ellos siempre.”). He has accused INE of purposely misleading the electorate, and, in the face of mass protests, went so far as to associate critics of Plan B with drug cartels. 

This new law, critics argue, may facilitate a backslide into one-party rule.  Mexico is no stranger to uncompetitive elections.  The Institutional Revolutionary Party (“PRI”) maintained uninterrupted control of government for most of the twentieth century, prompting criticism of a “camouflaged dictatorship.”  Only through reform efforts in the 1990s and early 2000s was PRI’s stronghold on Mexican politics finally broken, allowing a competitive electoral landscape to flourish.  When AMLO and Morena came into power in 2018, they did so on a leftist austerity and anti-corruption platform that centered the concerns of working class and low-income people with a decidedly populist flare.  But, following a playbook similar to that of former United States President Donald Trump and former Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro, AMLO has sowed skepticism of Mexican institutions.⁵Because the Mexican Constitution bars successive terms, AMLO cannot run for re-election, though Morena is expected to retain power. See Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, CP, Diario Oficial de la Federación [DOF] 05-02-1917, últimas reformas DOF 10-02-2014, cap. I, art. 83 (https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/646405/CPEUM_28-05-21.pdf).  Such public denouncements risk further destabilizing democracy in a nation already suffering from corruption and other threats to the rule of law.  Observers worry that, by gutting INE and skirting constitutional protections for election integrity, AMLO and Morena are pursuing authoritarian ends reminiscent of the not-so-distant past, even though both remain highly popular and Morena holds power at every branch of the federal government and a majority of states.

Opponents of the law now hope that the Supreme Court of Mexico will strike down the law as unconstitutional.  The Mexican Constitution guarantees INE autonomy⁶Id. at cap. 1, art. 41, pt. V, sbpt. A (“El Instituto Nacional Electoral es un organismo público autónomo dotado de personalidad jurídica y patrimonio propios.”). and the necessary staffing for the agency to fulfill its duties,⁷Id. (“Los órganos ejecutivos y técnicos dispondrán del personal calificado necesario para el ejercicio de sus atribuciones.”). including, for example, ensuring “[t]he financial accountability and supervision of the political parties and the candidates’ campaigns.”⁸ See id. at cap. I, art. 41, pt. V, sbpt. B (“La fiscalización de las finanzas de los partidos políticos y de las campañas de los candidatos estará a cargo del Consejo General del Instituto Nacional Electoral.”). As such, INE officials intend to challenge Plan B in court, contending that the new measures so severely gut the agency as to prevent it from fulfilling its constitutional mandate.  Lorenzo Córdova, chief INE councilmember, is calling on the Mexican populace to “activate all legal mechanisms at their disposal to defend democracy,” expressing ultimate faith in the country’s constitutional design. 

Meanwhile, though AMLO is also optimistic about Mexico’s High Court ruling in favor of Plan B, the President recently attacked the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice for issuing favorable rulings for criminal defendants “as if judges ‘can do whatever they want.’”  Even if the Supreme Court ultimately strikes down Plan B, AMLO and Morena could continue to use inflammatory rhetoric to delegitimize the Supreme Court, threatening the separation of powers and eroding confidence in the decision.

In response to the new law, the United States State Department put out a brief statement:  “[I]n Mexico, we see a great debate on electoral reforms on the independence of electoral and judicial institutions that illustrates Mexico’s vibrant democracy. We respect Mexico’s sovereignty. . . [and] believe that a well-resourced, independent electoral system and respect for judicial independence support healthy democracy.”  AMLO promptly rebuked the U.S. State Department’s comments, contending that “there is more democracy in Mexico than could exist in the United States.”

While Mexico awaits the Supreme Court’s decision, international pressure could help to safeguard Mexican elections, at least in the short term.  Groups like the Human Rights Watch and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights play a significant role in truth-gathering and analyzing such threats to democracy around the world.  Here, they can offer value as independent sources of authority for the Mexican electorate to understand what is at stake and mobilize accordingly.

References:

• 1
  Notably, Plan B took a different legislative route to enactment.  In December 2022, the lower house of Congress effectively blocked AMLO’s 2022 constitutional amendment after not receiving the necessary two-thirds to pass a constitutional reform.  Plan B, however, only required approval of a simple majority, which AMLO secured in the upper chamber of Congress.
• 2
  See Sobre INE, Instituto Nacional Electoral, https://www.ine.mx/sobre-el-ine (“El INE es la máxima autoridad electoral del Estado Mexicano. . .”) (last visited March 3, 2023).
• 3
  With a 61 percent favorability rating, the INE has displayed broad support among Mexicans.
• 4
  See Natalia Cano, El Instituto Nacional Electoral de México Advierte que las Elecciones de 2024 Están en Riesgo, CNN Español (Jan. 26, 2023, 19:49 PM), https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/video/ine-lorenzo-cordova-ciro-murayama-natalia-cano-redaccion-mexico (“¿Como se va a poner en riesgo una elección si quien ha hecho valer la democracia en el país ha sido el pueblo, no ellos? Los que ponen en riesgo la elección son ellos siempre.”).
• 5
  Because the Mexican Constitution bars successive terms, AMLO cannot run for re-election, though Morena is expected to retain power. See Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, CP, Diario Oficial de la Federación [DOF] 05-02-1917, últimas reformas DOF 10-02-2014, cap. I, art. 83 (https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/646405/CPEUM_28-05-21.pdf).
• 6
  Id. at cap. 1, art. 41, pt. V, sbpt. A (“El Instituto Nacional Electoral es un organismo público autónomo dotado de personalidad jurídica y patrimonio propios.”).
• 7
  Id. (“Los órganos ejecutivos y técnicos dispondrán del personal calificado necesario para el ejercicio de sus atribuciones.”).
• 8
  See id. at cap. I, art. 41, pt. V, sbpt. B (“La fiscalización de las finanzas de los partidos políticos y de las campañas de los candidatos estará a cargo del Consejo General del Instituto Nacional Electoral.”).